You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water the plant will die with probability 0.75. With water it will die with probability 0.5. You are 82 % certain the neighbor will remember to water the plant.
When you are on vacation, find the probability that the plant will die.
Answer:

You come back from the vacation and the plant is dead. What is the probability the neighbor forgot to water it?
Answer: