Each week for 201 consecutive weeks, a driver records his gasoline consumption. The data are plotted below:
Part (a) The driver decided to apply exponential smoothing to the data and the fitted values are included on the plot below: Based on the above, circle the most likely value of the smoothing parameter that was used:

A. 0.05
B. 0
C. 1.56
D. 0.80
E. 1.00


Part (b) The fuel consumption figure for the final week was 12.30 gallons, and the value predicted for that week using the exponential smoothing above was 12.22 gallons. Use this information and the value of $\alpha$ you selected above to forecast the fuel consumption for the next week (that is, week 202).


Part (c) What would be the forecasted value for week 203?


Part (d) In general, does exponential smoothing provide prediction intervals for forecasted values? Explain your answer.


Part (e) Do you think either Holt’s method or the Holt–Winters approach would be preferable to exponential smoothing here? Justify your answer.