Your favorite team is in the World Series. You have
assigned a probability of 57% that they will
win the championship. Past records indicate that when
teams win the championship, they win the first game of
the series 71% of the time. When they lose the
championship, they win the first game 22% of the
time. The first game is over and your team has lost.
What is the probability that they will win the World Series?
Probability =